Inflation or deflation?

    Even the experts can't agree whether rising or falling prices lie in our future.

    That leaves investors in quandary: how to construct a portfolio at a time of great uncertainty. A wrong bet could be devastating. If your portfolio is built for deflation, for example, your assets will slump if the country instead experiences a bout of inflation

    The answer is to prepare for the economic scenario you think is most likely, and then build in some insurance in case you are wrong.

    'If you want to win the war,' says Rich Rosso, a financial consultant at Charles Schwab, 'you have to own both sides of the fight to some degree.'

    Such an approach necessarily means some investments will suffer no matter how the economy turns. That is OK: Buying insurance doesn't mean you actually want to use it.

    Here are three portfolios, each with built-in insurance. The first will do best in an inflationary period but won't be crushed if deflation instead rules the day. The second is for investors who fear deflation, but want some protection against potential inflation -- even if it is down the road. And the third is aimed at investors who believe the economy will muddle through without severe inflation or deflation.

    Inflation

    If you believe all the government spending in response to the financial crisis will ultimately beget inflation, you want a portfolio that thrives in a period of surging prices.

    Commodities are the primary play, because everything from oil and corn to copper and pork bellies should gain. Plus, commodities -- particularly gold -- hedge against the dollar, offering a 2-for-1 benefit if a weak dollar accompanies inflation, as some expect.

    Since commodities contracts can be a hassle for individual investors, consider a fund such as Pimco's CommodityRealReturn Strategy Fund, which offers exposure to a broad swath of industrial and agricultural commodities.

    Though it seems counterintuitive, cash can do pretty well, too. The Federal Reserve would likely fight rising inflation by pushing up short-term interest rates, allowing investors with cash to capture the escalating rates through short-term certificates of deposit and money-market accounts.

    Michele Gambera, chief economist at Ibbotson Associates, says his research shows that in the last five bouts of meaningful inflation, returns on cash essentially matched the inflation rate, meaning it isn't losing its purchasing power. Online banks and local credit unions tend to offer the highest rates.

    Treasury inflation-protected securities, or TIPS, are an obvious investment since their principal adjusts upward along with inflation. TIPS exposure is available through mutual funds, such as the Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund, though Steven Fox, director of forecasting at Russell Investments, notes that holding individual bonds to maturity is more effective as an inflation hedge since 'the majority of the inflation protection comes when the inflated principal is repaid.' Individual TIPS are available through brokerage firms or TreasuryDirect.gov.

    Sharp inflation is generally a negative for stocks, because rising interest rates potentially pinch corporate profits and undermine economic growth. But a few stocks will likely do fine. Start with energy and metals stocks because higher prices for their commodities will boost earnings, says Mark Kiesel, a managing director at Pacific Investment Management Co., or Pimco. Include as well U.S. firms with pricing power, such as regulated utilities, domestic pipeline companies and manufacturers of specialty materials. Examples of companies to consider: miners such as Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold and energy giant Exxon Mobil, or companies indirectly tied to commodity prices, such as driller Diamond Offshore Drilling, farm-equipment company Deere and seed supplier Monsanto.

    -- Insurance Component: Long-term Treasury bonds and municipal bonds.

    Both will likely soar in value amid deflation because their long period of fixed payments would be an attractive source of income as prices for goods and services broadly fall, and as paychecks shrink. And Treasurys, in particular, would likely become a haven for foreign investors, further pushing up their price.

    Deflation

    Portfolio preparation is easier for deflationists: Put a chunk of money into long-term Treasury bonds and much of the rest into cash and some municipal bonds.

    If broad-based deflation materializes, long-term Treasurys are likely to surge. The bonds' fixed-income stream, meanwhile, would be worth increasingly more relative to falling consumer prices.

    Some investment-grade municipal bonds could serve a similar role while also providing tax advantages for high-income earners. But beware: Deflation would likely mean some taxing authorities struggle to service bonds reliant on a specific income stream, like user fees. Instead, stick to 'investment-grade bonds tied to necessary services like water and sewage, power or necessary government offices like, say, a courthouse building,' says Marilyn Cohen, president of bond-investment firm Envision Capital.

    Round out your deflation portfolio with a big slug of cash. Though it won't generate much of a return in a low-rate, deflationary environment, cash in the bank will gain value as prices fall.

    -- Insurance Component: Commodities react most drastically to surprise inflation, so they should be part of your insurance. Add in TIPS, too, and stocks geared 'toward consumer-staple companies,' says Ibbotson's Mr. Gambera. If inflation arises, companies such Coca-Cola, tobacco giant Altria, and toothpaste maker Colgate-Palmolive will have some pricing power.

    Goldilocks Economy

    Maybe, just maybe, world bankers will get this right, and the economy will experience neither severe inflation nor severe deflation.

    'We think most likely the central banks of the world will get this close enough to right that we will settle in close' to a relatively benign inflation rate of between 1.5% and 2.5%, says Aaron Gurwitz, head of global investment strategy at Barclays Wealth.

    In such a 'Goldilocks' scenario -- where the economy is neither too hot nor too cold -- 'risky assets would do best, so equities and bonds with some equity characteristics should receive the emphasis,' says Scott Wolle, portfolio manager of the AIM Balanced-Risk Allocation Fund.

    That means broad exposure to large-cap and small-cap U.S. stocks through funds such as the Vanguard 500 Index Fund or the Bridgeway Small-Cap Value fund; and exposure to developed and emerging markets through funds like the Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund （mainly developed markets）, and the T. Rowe Price Emerging Markets Stock Fund.

    For the bond component, pick a fund such as the Fidelity Total Bond fund that largely owns high-grade, intermediate-term corporate bonds and mortgages, along with government and agency debt.

    -- Insurance Component: Just in case the Goldilocks scenario is wrong, you will need insurance against either inflation or deflation. Pick up inflation protection through a commodity ETF, and deflation protection with long-term Treasurys. Cash also is OK in either situation.

    接下來等著我們的會是通貨膨脹還是通貨緊縮？

    即便是專家也對物價(jià)到底要漲還是要跌看法不一。

    這就給投資者出了一個(gè)難題：在經(jīng)濟(jì)前景如此不明朗的時(shí)局下，該如何構(gòu)建自己的投資組合。下錯(cuò)了注，受到的打擊將是致命的。比如，你的組合是基于對通貨緊縮的預(yù)期，那么假使發(fā)生了通貨膨脹，你的資產(chǎn)便會大幅縮水。

    最佳方案就是，按你認(rèn)為最有可能出現(xiàn)的經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況來進(jìn)行投資，同時(shí)采取一定的保險(xiǎn)措施。

    嘉信理財(cái)（Charles Schwab）的金融咨詢師里奇？羅索（Rich Rosso）說，要想贏得戰(zhàn)爭的勝利，對于作戰(zhàn)雙方你得多少都投點(diǎn)資。

    采取這種投資方式的話，不管經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢如何，你都會有部分資產(chǎn)受損。沒問題：買保險(xiǎn)并不意味著你非用它不可。

    以下三種投資組合均考慮了內(nèi)在的保險(xiǎn)要素。第一種組合在通貨膨脹時(shí)期表現(xiàn)最佳，遭遇通貨緊縮時(shí)卻也不致崩盤。第二種適于那些預(yù)期通貨緊縮、同時(shí)也希望能夠應(yīng)對通貨膨脹的投資者──即便會遭遇縮水。第三種針對的則是那些認(rèn)為經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展溫和、既不會有嚴(yán)重的通脹也不會有嚴(yán)重通縮的投資者。

    通貨膨脹型投資

    如果你認(rèn)為政府應(yīng)對經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)的一應(yīng)開銷最終會導(dǎo)致通貨膨脹，那么你肯定希望自己的投資組合在物價(jià)上漲時(shí)能有良好表現(xiàn)。

    商品期貨可以是投資的重頭，因?yàn)榈綍r(shí)候原油、糧食、銅、豬腩的價(jià)格都會上漲。而且，大宗商品──尤其是黃金──可對沖美元貶值，有人預(yù)計(jì)，在美元疲軟兼通脹的形勢下，投資黃金可以帶來雙倍的收益。

    由于大宗商品期貨對于個(gè)人投資者而言很麻煩，不妨考慮投資基金，比如太平洋投資管理公司（Pimco）的商品實(shí)際收益策略基金，該基金涵蓋了多種工農(nóng)業(yè)大宗商品。

    還有一個(gè)選擇就是現(xiàn)金投資，乍聽起來好像很不可思議，不過現(xiàn)金投資也可以有不俗的表現(xiàn)。通貨膨脹后美聯(lián)儲（Fed）極有可能會采取提高短期利率的應(yīng)對措施，投資者的短期存單及貨幣市場賬戶都會有不錯(cuò)的利息。

    Ibbotson Associates首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家米歇爾？岡博拉（Michele Gambera）說，他的研究顯示，在過去五次影響深遠(yuǎn)的通貨膨脹中，存儲現(xiàn)金的回報(bào)同通貨膨脹率基本是相抵的，也就是現(xiàn)金的購買力并未減少。網(wǎng)上銀行及各地的信用合作社通常提供的利率最高。

    財(cái)政部通貨膨脹保值債券（Treasury inflation-protected securities,簡稱TIPS）顯然是個(gè)不錯(cuò)的選擇，其本金會隨通貨膨脹率的上升而上升。可以通過一些共同基金來操作，比如Vanguard通貨膨脹保值證券基金，不過Russell Investments的預(yù)測主管斯蒂文？福克斯（Steven Fox）說，個(gè)人持有債券至到期日是一種更為有效的通脹對沖手段，因?yàn)?quot;通貨膨脹的保值主要體現(xiàn)在本金增值的回報(bào)。"個(gè)人可以通過經(jīng)紀(jì)公司或TreasuryDirect.gov網(wǎng)站購得TIPS債券。

    對于股票投資而言，急劇的通貨膨脹通常起到的都是負(fù)面作用，因?yàn)槔�率提高很可能會打擊企業(yè)利潤，導(dǎo)致其經(jīng)濟(jì)增長變慢。不過有少數(shù)一些股票卻會有良好表現(xiàn)。太平洋投資管理公司董事總經(jīng)理馬克？凱索（Mark Kiesel）說，不妨從能源股和金屬股入手，因?yàn)槟茉春徒饘賰r(jià)格的上漲會令其收益大增。此外還有那些擁有定價(jià)權(quán)的美國公司，比如，政府管制的公用事業(yè)公司、國內(nèi)油氣管線公司、特種材料生產(chǎn)商�？梢钥紤]的公司有：礦業(yè)公司，如Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold、能源巨頭埃克森美孚（Exxon Mobil）,或者同大宗商品價(jià)格有著間接關(guān)聯(lián)的公司，比如Diamond Offshore Drilling、農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械巨頭迪爾公司（Deere）、種子公司孟山都公司（Monsanto）等。

    保險(xiǎn)元素：長期國債和市政債券

    這兩種債券在通貨緊縮時(shí)期價(jià)格都會攀升，因?yàn)樵谏唐泛头��?wù)大幅降價(jià)、薪酬縮水的情形下，這兩種債券的長期固定收益會是一筆可觀的收入。尤其是美國國債，到時(shí)會很受國外投資者的青睞，從而價(jià)格受到進(jìn)一步推動(dòng)。

    通貨緊縮型

    通貨緊縮論者要構(gòu)建投資組合相對更為容易：可將大部分錢購置長期美國國債，剩余的錢，一部分存現(xiàn)，一部分購入市政債券。

    如果大范圍通貨緊縮成為現(xiàn)實(shí)，長期國債便極有可能會升值。而與此同時(shí)，債券的固定收益同消費(fèi)價(jià)格下跌的關(guān)聯(lián)日益密切。

    有些投資級別的市政債券也可以發(fā)揮類似的作用，同時(shí)為高收入者帶來稅務(wù)方面的好處。不過切記：在通貨緊縮的情況下，有些陷入困境的部門可能難以償還以來用戶收費(fèi)等特定收入的債券。債券投資機(jī)構(gòu)Envision Capital的總裁瑪里琳？科恩（Marilyn Cohen）說，可以選擇"同諸如供水與污水處理、電力等必需服務(wù)的機(jī)構(gòu)或諸如法院大樓等政府必需的辦公場所密切相關(guān)的投資級別債券。"

    如果你對經(jīng)濟(jì)的預(yù)期是通貨緊縮，那么就在你的投資組合中保留大量的現(xiàn)金吧。把現(xiàn)金存在銀行，在低利率、通貨緊縮的環(huán)境下產(chǎn)生不了很大的收益，不過隨著物價(jià)的下跌，現(xiàn)金實(shí)際上是升值的。

    保險(xiǎn)元素：假使通脹不期而至，大宗商品期貨會有最大的收益，所以應(yīng)當(dāng)將其作為一項(xiàng)保險(xiǎn)措施。此外也要考慮購入通貨膨脹保值債券，而依據(jù)Ibbotson Associates的岡博拉的意見，股票則要傾向于"必需消費(fèi)品公司".如果通脹爆發(fā)，可口可樂公司（Coca-Cola）、煙草巨頭奧馳亞集團(tuán)（Altria）、牙膏生產(chǎn)商高露潔-棕欖（Colgate-Palmolive）等企業(yè)便有了定價(jià)權(quán)。

    金發(fā)女孩經(jīng)濟(jì)型

    可能，僅僅是可能──全世界的銀行家都很了解這一點(diǎn)──經(jīng)濟(jì)既沒有嚴(yán)重的通貨膨脹也沒有嚴(yán)重的通貨緊縮。

    巴克萊（Barclays Wealth）全球投資策略主管亞倫？格威茨（Aaron Gurwitz）說，我們認(rèn)為，各國央行最終極有可能將通脹率保持相對溫和的水平，即介于1.5%至2.5%之間。

    AIM Balanced-Risk Allocation基金投資組合經(jīng)理斯科特？沃勒（Scott Wolle）說，在"金發(fā)女孩"經(jīng)濟(jì)時(shí)期──經(jīng)濟(jì)既不過熱也不過冷──"風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)會有最好的表現(xiàn)，股票和帶有股票性質(zhì)的債券應(yīng)當(dāng)是關(guān)注的重點(diǎn)。"

    也就是說，你可以購入大量的美國大型股及小型股股票，可以通過Vanguard 500指數(shù)基金、Bridgeway小型股價(jià)值基金等基金購入；也可以通過Vanguard國際股票總指數(shù)基金（主要針對發(fā)達(dá)國家股市）、T. Rowe Price新興市場股票基金等基金購入發(fā)達(dá)市場及新興市場股票。

    債券部分可以選擇一支基金，比如富達(dá)債券總指數(shù)基金，該基金持有高等級中期企業(yè)債券、抵押貸款及政府和政府機(jī)構(gòu)債務(wù)。

    保險(xiǎn)元素：假設(shè)關(guān)于金發(fā)女孩經(jīng)濟(jì)的預(yù)期是錯(cuò)誤的，那么你需要抵御通貨膨脹和通貨緊縮的雙重風(fēng)險(xiǎn)�？梢再徣氪笞谏唐方灰姿�買賣基金來應(yīng)對通貨膨脹、長期國債來應(yīng)對通貨緊縮�，F(xiàn)金則是可以同時(shí)應(yīng)對兩種情況的法寶。