First it will become wireless and ubiquitous, crawling into the woodwork and perhaps even under our skin. Eventually, it will disappear

    The Internet seems to have just arrived, so how can we possibly imagine what will replace it? In truth, early versions of the Net have been around since the 1960s and '70s, but only after the mid-1990s did it begin to have a serious public impact. Since 1994, the population of users has grown from about 13 million to more than 300 million around the world. About half are in North America, and most--despite significant progress in rolling out high-speed access--still reach the Internet by way of the public telephone network.

    What will the Internet be like 20 years from now?

    Like the rest of infrastructure, the Internet will eventually seem to disappear by becoming ubiquitous. Most access will probably be via high-speed, low-power radio links. Most handheld, fixed and mobile appliances will be Internet enabled. This trend is already discernible in the form of Internet-enabled Cell Phones and personal digital assistants. Like the servants of centuries past, our household helpers will chatter with one another and with the outside help.

    At some point, the armada of devices we strap to our bodies like tools on Batman's belt will coalesce into a smaller number of multifunction devices. Equipped with radio links, a pda can serve as an appliance-control remote, a digital wallet, a Cell Phone, an identity badge, an e-mail station, a digital book, a pager and perhaps even a digital camera. There is sure to be a catchy name for this all-purpose Internet-enabled thingy, perhaps Wireless Internet Digital Gadget for Electronic Transactions, or WIDGET.

    So many appliances, vehicles and buildings will be online by 2020 that it seems likely there will be more things on the Internet than people. Internet-enabled cars and airplanes are coming online, and smart houses are being built every day. Eventually, programmable devices will become so cheap that we will embed them in the cardboard boxes into which we put other things for storage or shipping. These passive "computers" will be activated as they pass sensors and will be able to both emit and absorb information. Such innovations will facilitate increasingly automatic manufacturing, inventory control, shipping and distribution. Checkout at the grocery store will be fully automatic, as will payment via your digital wallet.

    The advent of programmable, nanoscale machines (see "Will Tiny Robots Build Diamonds One Atom at a Time?" in this issue) will extend the Internet to things the size of molecules that can be injected under the skin, leading to Internet-enabled people. Such devices, together with Internet-enabled sensors embedded in clothing, will avoid a hospital stay for medical patients who would otherwise be there only for observation. The speech processor used today in cochlear implants for the hearing impaired could easily be connected to the Internet; listening to Internet radio could soon be a direct computer-to-brain experience!

    The Internet will undergo substantial alteration as optical technologies allow the transmission of many trillions of bits per second on each strand of the Internet's fiber-optic backbone network. The core of the network will remain optical, and the edges will use a mix of access technologies, ranging from radio and infrared to optical fiber and the old twisted-pair copper telephone lines. By then, the Internet will have been extended, by means of an interplanetary Internet backbone, to operate in outer space.

    How will this pervasive Internet access affect our daily lives? More and more of the world's information will be accessible instantly and from virtually anywhere. In an emergency, our health records will be available for remote medical consultation with specialists and perhaps even remote surgery. More and more devices will have access to the global positioning system, increasing the value of geographically indexed databases. Using GPS with speech-understanding software that is emerging today, we will be able to get directions from our WIDGETS as easily as we once got them at a filling station. One can imagine driving in the car, asking our WIDGET for the name of the nearest Thai restaurant, getting an answer, asking for reservations and then for directions. Indeed, the car may be smart enough to handle the entire transaction and drive us there itself.

    Is there any downside to a society suffused with information and the tools to process it?

    Privacy will come at a premium. Enormous quantities of data about our daily affairs will flow across the Internet, working to make our lives easier. Despite our penchant for giving up privacy in exchange for convenience, our experiences online may make us yearn for the anonymity of the past. Who should have access to our medical records and our financial information, and how will that access be controlled? Will we be able to search and use the vast information stored online without leaving trails of personal cookie crumbs scattered across the Net? How will Business transactions be taxed, and in what jurisdictions will disputed electronic transactions be resolved? How will intellectual property be protected? How will we prove that contracts were signed on a certain date, or that their terms and conditions have not been electronically altered? There are technical answers for many of these questions, but some will require international agreements before they can be resolved.

    Perhaps even more daunting, in the face of Internet-wide virus attacks, is the realization that we will depend in larger and larger measure on the network's functioning reliably. Making this system of millions of networks sufficiently robust and resilient is a challenge for the present generation of Internet engineers. Failure could portend an increasingly fragile future. But I am an optimist. I believe we are going to live in a world abundant with information and with the tools needed to use it wisely. 

    它鉆進(jìn)木制家具甚至我們的皮膚,它無拘無束,無處不在.最后,它將無影無蹤.

    似乎互聯(lián)網(wǎng)時(shí)代才剛剛來臨,我們怎么可能想到什么會(huì)取代互聯(lián)網(wǎng)?實(shí)際上,早期的網(wǎng)絡(luò)在19世紀(jì)六七十年代已經(jīng)出現(xiàn),只不過在1995年之后才開始產(chǎn)生巨大的影響.從1994年開始,世界范圍的網(wǎng)絡(luò)用戶從130萬增加到3000萬.其中一半在北美,并且大多數(shù)人--對于高速接入的重大進(jìn)步視而不見--仍然用公共電話網(wǎng)接入互聯(lián)網(wǎng).

    20年后的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)是什么樣子的?

    類似基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的剩余部分,互聯(lián)網(wǎng)會(huì)因無處不在而消失.大多數(shù)可能會(huì)是通過高速,低功率的無線電接入.大多數(shù)手持的,固定的,移動(dòng)的應(yīng)用也將可以使用互聯(lián)網(wǎng).這種趨勢通過手機(jī)的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)應(yīng)用和個(gè)人數(shù)字助理已經(jīng)可以隱約看到.就像過去幾百年中的仆人一樣,我們的家庭主婦助手會(huì)對另一個(gè)助手和外援喋喋不休.

    在某些方面,我們隨身攜帶的大量設(shè)備像蝙蝠俠腰帶上的工具那樣合并成集多種功能于一體而變得小巧.擁有無線電接入功能的個(gè)人數(shù)字助手可以像一個(gè)控制應(yīng)用的遙控,一個(gè)數(shù)字錢包,一個(gè)手機(jī),一個(gè)身份令牌,一個(gè)電子郵件站,一本數(shù)字書籍,一張紙甚至可能是一個(gè)數(shù)字相機(jī).為這個(gè)萬能的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)應(yīng)用東東起個(gè)容易記住的名字是必須的,可以是電子交易用無線互聯(lián)數(shù)字器件或者"小東西".

    如此多的應(yīng)用,汽車和建筑到2020年將在線以至于互聯(lián)網(wǎng)出現(xiàn)的新東西比上網(wǎng)的人還要多.可用互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的汽車和飛機(jī)即將上線,智能住房每天都在建造.最終,可編程的設(shè)備會(huì)便宜到我們可以把它們嵌入薄紙板盒子,用來存放其他東西.這些可以收發(fā)信息的消極的"電腦"通過傳感器激活.這樣的創(chuàng)新日益方便了自動(dòng)制造,清單控制,船運(yùn)和分配.食品雜貨商店結(jié)帳臺(tái)是全自動(dòng)的,用你的數(shù)字錢包付賬.

    可編程的納米級(jí)機(jī)器把互聯(lián)網(wǎng)擴(kuò)展到可以皮下注射的分子級(jí)應(yīng)用,產(chǎn)生出擁有互聯(lián)網(wǎng)應(yīng)用功能的人.這些設(shè)備同互聯(lián)網(wǎng)應(yīng)用傳感器一起嵌入衣物,使病人不在醫(yī)院同樣可以接受觀察.在聽力受損的人耳內(nèi)植入話語處理器,可以輕易連接到互聯(lián)網(wǎng);聽互聯(lián)網(wǎng)無線電不久將成為一個(gè)直接由電腦到人腦的體驗(yàn)!

    互聯(lián)網(wǎng)將會(huì)經(jīng)歷物質(zhì)性的改變,因?yàn)楣鈱W(xué)技術(shù)使互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的骨干光纖網(wǎng)絡(luò)的每一股都可以傳輸每秒幾兆比特的數(shù)據(jù).網(wǎng)絡(luò)核心仍將是光學(xué)的,而從無線電,紅外線到光纖和老式的電話雙絞銅線的邊際,都將采用混合處理技術(shù).到時(shí)候,互聯(lián)網(wǎng)將會(huì)通過行星間的骨干網(wǎng)在外太空運(yùn)行.

    這個(gè)無孔不入的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)進(jìn)程將會(huì)怎樣影響我們的生活?越來越多的信息可以從能看到的任何地方即時(shí)獲得.在急診中,我們的健康記錄可以從遙遠(yuǎn)的醫(yī)學(xué)專家顧問甚至遙遠(yuǎn)的外科醫(yī)生那里得到.越來越多的設(shè)備擁有全球衛(wèi)星定位系統(tǒng),為地理檢索數(shù)據(jù)庫提供信息.帶有能聽懂人話軟件的全球衛(wèi)星定位系統(tǒng)正在涌現(xiàn),我們能像在信息站那樣輕易地從我們的"小東西"得到方位.你可以想象一邊開著車,一邊向"小東西"詢問最近的旅店,得到回復(fù),預(yù)訂房間再詢問怎么走.的確,如果車能自己處理全程的交易并帶我們到目的地,那我們不得不說它是相當(dāng)智能的.

    這對于彌漫著信息和處理信息工具的社會(huì)沒有負(fù)面影響嗎?

    個(gè)人隱私將被投保.有關(guān)我們?nèi)粘Ｊ聞?wù)的海量信息在互聯(lián)網(wǎng)上縱橫交錯(cuò),使我們的生活更加容易.盡管我們喜歡用隱私換取便利,我們的網(wǎng)絡(luò)經(jīng)歷可能讓我們懷念大家都匿名的過去.誰應(yīng)當(dāng)看到我們的健康記錄和我們的財(cái)政信息,這種行為該如何控制?我們能不能在網(wǎng)絡(luò)上搜索和使用大量的信息存儲(chǔ),而不在網(wǎng)上留下蛛絲馬跡?商業(yè)交易怎樣征稅,帶有爭論的電子交易在司法中如何定奪?知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)如何保護(hù)?我們?nèi)绾巫C明合同在約定的時(shí)間簽署,或者他們的條款和條件沒有被修改過?這些問題都有技術(shù)方面的支持,但是其中一些在確定前需要得到國際社會(huì)的認(rèn)同.

    或許甚至更聳人聽聞的是,面對互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的病毒攻擊,我們意識(shí)到我們將需要越來越大的尺度衡量網(wǎng)絡(luò)功能可靠性.使百萬網(wǎng)絡(luò)系統(tǒng)足夠強(qiáng)健和富有彈性對當(dāng)代互聯(lián)網(wǎng)工程師來說是一個(gè)挑戰(zhàn).失敗將意味著日益脆弱的將來.但我是一個(gè)樂觀主義者.我相信我們將生活在一個(gè)充滿信息和需要廣泛使用的工具的世界里.